With the 2024 Presidential election cycle beginning, many are preparing themselves for the potential rematch of current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as both have officially announced their bid for president of the United States once again. While they seem to be the two likely candidates to win the nomination according to polls, the majority of Americans don’t want either running for president again.
The 2024 election cycle is something many are dreading. While the majority of Americans don’t want to have to choose between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, polls are currently reflecting that it might be the rematch we’re getting anyway.
One common critique of President Biden is his age, with worry of cognitive decline. Many speculate that the Biden administration wants to keep the President out of the public light too much, with the hope that doing so would stop from hurting his reputation due to gaffes. It doesn’t help that, according to the American Presidency Project, Biden only conducted nine news conferences in his first year, meanwhile, Trump did 22, and former President Obama did 27. What shows even more of a difference between the current President and the ones before him is that Biden only did 22 press interviews within his first year, while Trump did 92, and Obama did 156. Additionally, while it’s not unusual, it doesn’t help either that President Biden does not intend to debate any other Democratic candidates considering his considerably low approval rating and poll numbers.
A common critique of the former President is the ongoing criminal investigations he is facing. Former President Trump has been indicted for paying hush money to adult actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign and has been found liable for sexual abuse and defamation against another woman by a jury in New York City. Trump is also being investigated for other potential crimes, such as his phone call to the Georgia Secretary of State regarding the 2020 election, where Trump told him, “All I want to do is this: I just want to find 11,780 votes.”
According to an NBC news poll, only 5% of Americans say that a Trump vs. Biden rematch in 2024 is what they want to see. Despite this many people, including much of the media, appear to be predicting that it’s what the country is going to get regardless.
According to the same poll, 70% of Americans do not want President Biden to run again, which included 51% of Democrats before he announced his bid for 2024. Half of the people who say Biden should not run again said that his age was a major reason behind their answer. Despite this, 88% of Democrats said that if it came down to it, they would end up voting for Biden over Trump in the general election.
Similarly, 60% of Americans do not want former President Trump to run again, which included 54% of Republicans not saying that he would be their first choice. Only 26% of Republicans, however, say that the criminal investigations into him are a reason that he should not be the nominee.
According to a Fox News poll, Democratic nominee preferences among Democrat voters go as follows:
- Joe Biden: 62%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 19%
- Marianne Williamson: 9%
On the Republican side, according to the same Fox News poll, Republican nominee preferences among Republican voters go as follows:
- Donald Trump: 53%
- Ron Desantis: 21%
- Mike Pence: 6%
- Nikki Haley: 4%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3%
Former Vice President Mike Pence has not announced a bid for the presidency, while Florida Governor Ron Desantis announced his candidacy in May.
In terms of favorability, Trump leads Desantis by nine points by GOP voters, with Desantis having 69%. Nationwide, Desantis has an unfavorable rating of 41%, with Trump having an unfavorable rating of 43%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Overall, according to Rasmussen Reports, when Americans were asked who they would vote for in a Democratic primary, Joe Biden received 36% support from Americans, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 35% of support. The son of 1968 Presidential candidate Robert Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy has garnished 52% of Democrats’ support of his candidacy, while 32% opposed, according to the same poll.
Currently, according to Axios and Gallup, only 25% of Americans identify as either Democrat or Republican, while 49% of Americans identify themselves as independent. Furthermore, according to Gallup, 52% of Generation Z identify as independent. These numbers are only more reflective of the broken duopoly system in America.
Additionally, 60% of Americans say that we should have more political parties in the U.S. according to USA Today, which includes 49% of Trump 2024 voters and 67% of Biden 2024 supporters. More on our broken duopoly system and ways to fix it can be viewed here.
Modern U.S. History and Sociology teacher Sean Patrick said that Trump and Biden running again is “one of the worst possible choices that we could have.”
“Part of me wants to say (Trump wouldn’t win) but I don’t know if that’s gonna age well… I lean towards Desantis (winning) but that’s just what I’m seeing now,” Patrick said.
On the other hand, Patrick said he did think Biden would become the nominee. He did say, however, “I could see depending on what happens with RFK [Jr.] and how the DNC allows that whole situation to go, RFK could maybe make a little bit of headway, but we’ll see what happens.”
To Biden saying he won’t be participating in any Democratic primary debates despite his incredibly high percentage of people not wanting him to run, Patrick said he wasn’t surprised. “They’re gonna try to keep him out of the attention [and] get him away so that people can’t ask questions.”
Patrick also said that there would be a chance he would cast his vote for a third-party candidate in a Trump vs. Biden scenario, as it’s what he normally does anyway.
In regards to the chances of a third-party candidate actually winning against Trump and Biden, Patrick said, “You know, if we hadn’t experienced what we have experienced over the last seven years, I would say that it’s less [likely], but because of everything that’s happened and the ability to go viral, the ability to market towards people not in in the mainstream realm… the possibilities greater than it has been in the past.” Patrick continued, saying, “It’s all about can you break free of that two-party system… but it’s a very very tricky uphill battle.”
In terms of independents he’d want to see run, Patrick said “anyone with the last name Paul,” a nod to Rand Paul and Ron Paul. He went on to say, “I do like Andrew Yang, I do like Tulsi Gabbard; either of those two I would be pretty happy with… those two I think is the dream ticket, in either order.”
Patrick continued, saying he thought those two had the best chances at winning as third-party candidates.
“They’re two political names that have already garnered attention, but that doesn’t mean you don’t see somebody come from [the] outside… but I’m going to lean towards those two as being my dark horse independent-ish picks.”
Junior Silas McCarron said that he thought neither Biden nor Trump should be running again. “Honestly, both of them are too old and too senile to actually do anything for our country; they’re just gonna either cause problems or do nothing.”
McCarron said he thought Trump would not get the Republican nomination. “[Desantis] might honestly, I can see that happening.”
He also said he thought RFK Jr. had more of a chance of getting the nomination than Biden. “I think [Robert] Kennedy’s son is probably gonna make it. In fact, he might win the presidency based just on the popularity of his name alone.”
Although Biden’s an incumbent, McCarron said he thought the current President is “just dooming himself” by saying he won’t partake in any debate, as he’d show even more to people that he “doesn’t actually have anything they want.”
While McCarron wasn’t optimistic about the potential of either Democratic or Republican candidates, he said, “I do think it might be interesting if we have a third party win.. honestly, I kind of agree with the Forward Party.”
McCarron said that he thought if Trump and Biden did end up becoming the nominees again, then it would be because of “internal politics of the parties” rather than who was more popular, and that it’d be “decently likely” that a third party candidate could win.
“If we get a third party [candidate] actually winning an election, the status quo would be gone, and that sounds amazing. I wanna have actual debates and discussions about the future of our country without pointless bickering and fighting.”
He further said that if a third-party candidate could actually get on a debate stage, then that candidate would definitely beat Biden and Trump. “Those two don’t know what they’re talking about.”
McCarron expressed interest in Andrew Yang winning against a candidate within the duopoly as well, saying, “he looks like he’s not that old… plus, I feel like I’m not alone in my sentiments of discomfort and dislike towards the amount of sectionalism that we have.”
McCarron said that while he hasn’t seen Yang in many news articles recently, that could be a good thing for him. “That means he’s a dark horse… which can make him more interesting.”
Sophomore Claire Herter said that while she thinks it makes sense, she wasn’t happy with Trump or Biden running again either.
“I don’t like it because their candidacies last election caused so much division and hatred in America. I also think that both Biden and Trump are getting too old to be running a country.” She continued, saying, “America could benefit from a younger mind leading our country because they would be more sympathetic and relatable to the younger generations that ultimately are the ones who will have to live in our country for a longer time.”
Herter said that while it made sense for Biden to run again since most incumbents try to serve two terms, she thought Trump would like to run again because he was “able to gain a massive almost cult following.”
Herter said while she wasn’t confident that Trump would win, she considered it a good possibility. “Trump was able to amass a huge following last time he ran, so there are a lot of people that would love to see him representing the Republican Party in our next election.”
While Herter said she didn’t know much about other potential Republican candidates, she did say that the “only way Trump would not win the Republican vote is if a different nominee proved themself better than Trump. A lot of Republicans like that Trump is so flexible with his beliefs and is able to morph his platform to fit the beliefs of the party he is representing.”
Herter also said that while Trump has a large following, he also has a lot of enemies after the last election as well. “For every person that wants Trump to be the Republican nominee, it’s probably true that there are an equal amount of people that would fully reject his candidacy.”
Herter also said, however, that, “Biden’s followers aren’t as loyal and passionate about him. I think there are less people that would do anything to have Biden in the White House than Trump, so it’s less likely that he’ll get the Democratic nomination based on the public’s support.”
Herter said while she doesn’t know much about potential candidates, she has heard good things about Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Bernie Sanders. “I think AOC would be a great candidate because she is a young, person of color woman… I also think her plans to reverse the worst parts of climate change would be extremely beneficial.”
Herter said that if it came down to Trump vs. Biden again and there was no clear chance of a third party winning, then she would “simply vote for the lesser of two evils.” She did say, however, that while she typically views voting for a third-party candidate as pointless, “if it was looking like a third party could win and I agreed with their policies, then I would definitely vote for them.”
Heter said that considering how unpopular Trump and Biden are, she could see the possibility of a third-party candidate winning, although it cannot be guaranteed due to how third parties “have historically been viewed as lesser.
“If people hate both Trump and Biden to the point that they would refuse to vote for either of them, then it makes sense that a third party candidate would get a significant amount of votes,” Herter said.
While the Forward Party has recently announced that they will not be running a Presidential candidate, there are still some speculating Yang may run as an independent since Forward does not yet have federal recognition of a party. Yang on the matter has said, “I’m always willing to consider something I think is going to be good for the country, you know? So I wouldn’t rule anything out.”
Meanwhile, while many have speculated Tulsi Gabbard may run in 2024 for President with some wishing she would, Gabbard has not made any comment on whether she would run in 2024 for President or not.
New York representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has not completely ruled out running for President in 2024, however, she hasn’t seemed to express much interest either, saying, “I don’t know about all that,” when pressed by late-night show host Steven Colbert.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, has ruled out running for President completely, having endorsed President Biden shortly after he announced his re-election bid.
Although the majority of Americans are exhausted of both Trump and Biden, it appears many are holding out hope that someone else will come in and prevent the 2020 Presidential election rematch from happening. Whether it be someone from within the two dominant political parties or from the outside, the majority of Americans are desperate for someone new. With polls currently reflecting that the two would likely end up being the nominees again, it is becoming increasingly more likely that a third-party candidate could become a viable option, though polling for that possibility is also very close.
