NBA Playoffs: Predicting an End to an Unpredictable Postseason

The first round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs has come to an end, the second round is underway, and so far this postseason has established itself as unpredictable.

Some prohibitive favorites rolled through the opening round of the playoffs, but now, many of the NBA’s top teams in the regular season are getting all they can handle in the opening round of the playoffs; that is, the top teams that are left.

Out in the Eastern Conference, the resurgent Brooklyn Nets, the No. 4 seed, were knocked out by the injury-plagued No. 5 seed Chicago Bulls in their best of seven series, 4-3. The Bulls were playing without former NBA MVP Derrick Rose, plus they were missing two other starters in Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich.

And in the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets, the No. 3 seed, were shocked by the No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors, losing the series 4-2. The Nuggets 38-3 record at home in the regular season proved meaningless in the playoffs, as they lost Game 2 to the Warriors at home and never recovered after that.

In addition, the No. 5 seed in the West, the Memphis Grizzlies, rallied from a 2-0 series deficit against the Chris Paul-led Los Angeles Clippers, winning four straight to close out the series 4-2.

After some first round surprises, the second round is proving to be nothing short of eventful as well.

The first round already affected the NBA Finals picture, and it seems the second round will continue to do so. Here is a look at each second round series, including a projection of who will come out on top in each series, and also, amidst the second round games, a prediction of this year’s NBA Finals.

Western Conference Semifinals Second Round:

5 Memphis Grizzlies vs. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (Memphis leads series 3-1)

Overview: The Grizzlies have the toughest scoring defense in the NBA, allowing just 89.3 points per game in the regular season, and big contributions from NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol have helped Memphis move within one win of knocking out no. 1 seed Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies have not lost a home game this postseason, and have gotten a boost with the Thunder missing second-leading scorer Russell Westbrook (23.2 points per game in the regular season) to an injury. OKC has not been able to reach 100 points in their series with Memphis, and even Kevin Durant, who is averaging 31.8 points per game in this postseason, the Thunder will not be able to crack the Memphis D and overcome the outstanding efforts of Gasol.

Prediction: Memphis wins series 4-2

6 Golden State Warriors vs. 2 San Antonio Spurs (series tied 2-2)

Overview: The Warriors are flying high in their first postseason appearance since 2007. Ranking 7th in the NBA in points per game (101.2), and 3rd in rebounds (45) in the regular season, Golden State shocked no. 3 seed Denver in the first round, and enters game 5 with no. 2 seed San Antonio tied 2-2. The Spurs were also one of the highest-scoring teams in the regular season, averaging 103 points per game (4th in the NBA) while averaging 25.1 assists per game (1st). Tony Parker has led the Spurs in the postseason 23.3 points per game, Tim Duncan has chipped in 9.4 rebounds per game, and Manu Ginobli is hitting big shots as usual, including the game-winner in game 1.
Stephen Curry, the leading scorer for Golden State with 22.9 points per game in the regular season, is fighting through a bum ankle, which represents a problem for the warriors. In addition, Golden State, having not made the playoffs in 6 years, does not have the same experience as the Spurs, who haven’t missed the playoffs in over a decade. Experience is always important in the playoffs, and will power the Spurs into the West Finals.

Prediction: San Antonio wins series 4-3

Eastern Conference Semifinals second round:

5 Chicago Bulls vs. 1 Miami Heat (Miami leads series 3-1)

Overview: After losing game 1 to the Bulls at home, the Heat have erupted to take three straight wins in the series. NBA MVP Lebron James is scoring 24.1 points per game in the playoffs, but he is definitely getting help. During the postseason, Chris Bosh is averaging 13.4 points per game, 8.5 rebounds per game, and leads the team in blocks with 2 per game. In addition, Bosh is shooting a sizzling 41.7 percent from 3-point range.

The Bulls, meanwhile, are feeling the sting of missing former NBA MVP Derrick Rose, as well as a double-figure scorer in Luol Deng, and another quality player in Kirk Hinrich. Even with Nate Robinson and Carlos Boozer averaging 15.8 and 15.5 points per game, respectively, and even with Joakim Noah tallying 9.6 rebounds per game, Chicago has not been able to keep up with the balanced Heat. James is a scoring machine who can deliver clutch baskets when needed, and Bosh’s eruption has made Miami even more dangerous. And with Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen both averaging in double-figures in the playoffs, the defending NBA champion Heat simply have too much firepower for the injury-plagued Bulls.

Prediction: Miami wins series 4-1

3 Indiana Pacers vs. 2 New York Knicks (Indiana leads series 2-1)

Overview: The Pacers lead the NBA in rebounds per game (45.9) and boast the league’s second-best scoring defense, allowing just 90.7 points per game. The Knicks dropped 105 points on Indiana in game 2, but were held to a mere 71 in a game 3 defeat. Carmelo Anthony has been dynamic all season for New York, and is averaging 28.3 points per game in the playoffs. NBA Sixth Man of the Year J.R. Smith has contributed as well, chipping in 13.8 points per game in the postseason.
But defense will be the key in the series, and the Pacers are the most bruising team in the East. Paul George leads Indiana in scoring with 18.3 points per game in the postseason, while also pulling down 8.2 rebounds per game and leading the team in steals with 1.9 per game. With three other players averaging double-figure scoring this postseason, Indiana is balanced enough to beat New York’s 1-2 punch of Anthony and Smith, though they will have to put their 19-21 road record during the regular season behind them and triumph in Madison Square Garden. But the Pacers can do just that if they crash the boards; New York ranked 26th in the NBA in rebounds per game (40.6) in the regular season. Ultimately, defense should carry the Pacers to an East Finals matchup with the Heat.

Prediction: Indiana wins series 4-2

Eastern Conference Finals Prediction: 1 Miami vs. 3 Indiana (Miami wins series 4-3)
Western Conference Finals Prediction: 2 San Antonio vs. 5 Memphis (Memphis wins series 4-2)
NBA Finals Prediction: 1 Miami vs. 5 Memphis (Miami wins series 4-2)

(Statistics from ESPN.com)

Toronto Raptors guard John Lucas (5) looks for room against the Atlanta Hawks in the second half of an NBA basketball  game on Tuesday, April 16, 2013, at Philips Arena in Atlanta. Toronto won 113-96. (AP Photo/David Tulis)